I Suck at Reading the Public

I’m not very good at intuitively predicting the behavior of large groups. I was thinking earlier this morning that, from time to time, I should remind myself of that.

When I consult my instincts, they tell me Barack Obama will win the presidency by a landslide.  A few years ago, the same instincts told me John Kerry would win the presidency by a landslide.

Some years ago, I developed an interest in marketing.  I gradually learned, however, that I lack the tastes and preferences necessary to have an intuitive feel for large markets.  McDonald’s is the world’s most popular restaurant.  But if I hadn’t read that in an industry magazine, would it have occurred to me they’d be the most popular?  I doubt it.

I do all right figuring out how people I know will act.  But I must rely on polls to predict the behavior of large aggregates.  In my intuitive world, Mercedes, and not Toyota, is the most popular car brand.

If Mr. Bush began bombing Iran, would the country rally around him?  Intuitively, I think not.  But I suck at predictions like that.  On 9/11, I said to a friend, “It’s especially bad this has happened when we have our third string in the White House.”  Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of Americans were deciding Mr. Bush was a great leader.  I recall his popularity soared to 80% approval.

It’s raining this morning.  I know from how people talk what that means to most people.  I like the sun and I like the rain, and I don’t feel one is necessarily better than the other.  But there again, my intuition is off the mark.

I don’t think my tastes are better or worse than other people’s tastes.  I only think my tastes are better for me than other people’s tastes would be.  So, I’m not saying here that I regret lacking the same tastes as most people.  I’m just saying that I sometimes regret having to work so hard to figure out what the majority of people might think or feel about something.  Some things would be a lot easier  to understand  if I had an intuitive feel for them.  For instance: If I had an intuitive feel for why so many people voted for Mr. Bush in 2004, then perhaps I wouldn’t still to this day be so perplexed over his re-election.

I suppose I can take consolation in the fact it’s impossible for me to be good at everything.  Reading the public is an area of life I’m especially poor at.  Fortunately, there are public opinion polls to help me compensate for that weakness.  Still, I think it would be nice at times not to so often get blindsided by what the public ends up doing.  Especially during an election year, I need to remind myself to be cautious.